並沒有好消息的美國市場似乎在選擇等待國會中期選舉結果。* 英國的政治困局是否會成為歐洲和美國政治的序幕值得關注。* 香港特首李家超發佈任內首份“施政報告”,聚焦房屋和人才。* 日元的持續貶值,令日本經濟持續的結構性脆弱問題浮出水面。* 伊朗對俄烏戰爭的介入,或使歐亞和國際局勢迎來新的變化。
白宮出臺新版“國家安全戰略”,明言:後冷戰時代已然結束(The post-Cold War era is definitely over)。這標誌著美國朝野就現有國際政治經濟秩序的終結已經達成共識,一個全新的時代悄然揭幕。* 從臺灣傳來“兵戎相見非兩岸選項”的聲音,台海局勢會因為何種因素而改變? * 香港特區政府臨時取消“23條”立法議程,或關乎後續中美就重要問題的談判。* 朝鮮半島無核化受到嚴重挑戰,韓國面臨處理經濟收縮和尋求核保護傘雙重難題。* 隨著新興經濟體越來越嚴重的債務危機,中國的“一帶一路”戰略面臨新挑戰。
OPEC+拒拜登而決意減產,是自身的經濟壓力考量,還是透視美國政府的軟肋。* 美國公佈對華半導體出口限制新規,中美“冷戰式脫鉤”進一步升級。* 香港特區的管治與民意之間的張力終究還是會回到“一國兩制”事業的檯面上。* 臺灣經濟部門10月8日罕見強調,台海穩定對全球才是最好的供應鏈投資。* 韓朝雙方出現40餘架戰機空中對峙局面,半島局勢緊張或導致美日韓聯盟加強。* 無需經俄羅斯而從中國抵達歐洲的“中間走廊”可能成為地緣格局的重要變數。
Asia Pacific Report 亞太發展報告 (2022.9.26-10.03)“臺灣政策法”的推進使得中美很難恢復面上的對話機制,各界都在未雨綢繆。*中美之間緊張的經濟與科技關係,給世界發展增加了不確定性。*即使迅速恢復與國際正常通關,香港社會的複常之路依然任重道遠。*香港國際競爭力的恢復與提升,關鍵仍然在於對人才的吸納力度。*實現邦交正常化50周年的中日關係,基本合作面依然廣闊,但充滿變數。
Asia Pacific Report 亞太發展報告
(2022.9.19-9.25)
*美聯儲寧要衰退也不要通脹的政策定力,將給全球脆弱經濟體帶來什麼後果。
*香港和臺灣在巨大壓力之下,拋出0+N入境檢疫政策,效果未必立竿見影。
*臺灣感受到了經濟發展的前路顛簸,需審視高科技全球化供應鏈的重組效應。
*日本央行要試著習慣宏觀調控以應對經濟困境。中日供應鏈也將承受考驗。
Macao is similar to a small Chinese town in terms of geographic size and population. However, this magical little place brought Western civilization to China. The whole south of China once relied on Macao as a gateway to the outside world.
The spread of COVID-19 around the world has caused global economic activity to stagnate and development to reverse, which has undoubtedly brought a great negative impact on Japan. For Japanese government, it’s still not easy to transfer overseas production chain back home.
Within a few weeks of identifying the novel coronavirus in January, medical masks quickly became one of the most sought-after commodities for their perceived protective powers, disappearing online and from store shelves around the world.
This week the S&P opened at 3,280 and closed at 3,300. With the market heading into the fourth quarter and elections looming, risk is the only key word. The United States is experiencing an ever more polarized political environment. The presidential and congressional elections are highly uncertain.
The new wave of COVID-19 Pandemic has not subsided, and the prevention and control measures taken by all countries are still ongoing. The globalization of the production chain has been largely blocked.





